The Coming Greater Depression of the 2020s

While there is never a good time for a pandemic, the COVID-19 crisis has arrived at a particularly bad moment for the global economy. The world has long been drifting into a perfect storm of financial, political, socioeconomic, and environmental risks, all of which are now growing even more acute. NEW YORK – After the … Continue reading “The Coming Greater Depression of the 2020s”

The White Swans of 2020

Financial markets remain blissfully in denial of the many predictable global crises that could come to a head this year, particularly in the months before the US presidential election. In addition to the increasingly obvious risks associated with climate change, at least four countries want to destabilize the US from within. NEW YORK – In … Continue reading “The White Swans of 2020”

Trump Will Make China Great Again

Despite the latest Sino-American “skinny deal” to ease tensions over trade, technology, and other issues, it is now clear that the world’s two largest economies have entered a new era of sustained competition. How the relationship will evolve depends greatly on America’s political leadership – which does not bode well. NEW YORK – Financial markets … Continue reading “Trump Will Make China Great Again”

Why Financial Markets’ New Exuberance Is Irrational

Owing to a recent easing of both Sino-American tensions and monetary policies, many investors seem to be betting on another era of expansion for the global economy. But they would do well to remember that the fundamental risks to growth remain, and are actually getting worse. NEW YORK – This past May and August, escalations … Continue reading “Why Financial Markets’ New Exuberance Is Irrational”

The Allure and Limits of Monetized Fiscal Deficits

With the global economy experiencing a synchronized slowdown, any number of tail risks could bring on an outright recession. When that happens, policymakers will almost certainly pursue some form of central-bank-financed stimulus, regardless of whether the situation calls for it. NEW YORK – A cloud of gloom hovered over the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting … Continue reading “The Allure and Limits of Monetized Fiscal Deficits”

Four Collision Courses for the Global Economy

Between US President Donald Trump’s zero-sum disputes with China and Iran, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s brinkmanship with Parliament and the European Union, and Argentina’s likely return to Peronist populism, the fate of the global economy is balancing on a knife edge. Any of these scenarios could lead to a crisis with rapid spillover effects. … Continue reading “Four Collision Courses for the Global Economy”

The Anatomy of the Coming Recession

Unlike the 2008 global financial crisis, which was mostly a large negative aggregate demand shock, the next recession is likely to be caused by permanent negative supply shocks from the Sino-American trade and technology war. And trying to undo the damage through never-ending monetary and fiscal stimulus will not be an option. NEW YORK – … Continue reading “The Anatomy of the Coming Recession”

The Great Crypto Heist

Cryptocurrencies have given rise to an entire new criminal industry, comprising unregulated offshore exchanges, paid propagandists, and an army of scammers looking to fleece retail investors. Yet, despite the overwhelming evidence of rampant fraud and abuse, financial regulators and law-enforcement agencies remain asleep at the wheel. NEW YORK – There is a good reason why … Continue reading “The Great Crypto Heist”